A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability

Contact Information

Jack Goldstone
Virginia E. and John T. Hazel, Jr. Professor; Director, Center for the Study of Social Change, Institutions and Policy (SCIP),

Schar School of Policy and Government
George Mason University
3351 North Fairfax Drive, MS 3B1
Arlington, VA 22201
Phone: (703) 993-1409
Fax: (703) 993-8215

The Director’s Blog: 
NewPopulationBomb

Email: jgoldsto@gmu.edu

Jack A. Goldstone, Robert H. Bates, David L. Epstein, Ted Robert Gurr, Michael B. Lustik, Monty G. Marshall, Jay Ulfelder, and Mark Woodward

Supporting Data and Documentation

American Journal of Political Science 50.1; 190-208 (January 2010)

The PITF is funded by the Central Intelligence Agency. The PITF website is hosted by hosted by the Center for Global Policy at George Mason University and is provided as a public service. The views expressed herein are those of the Task Force and its individual members, and do not represent the views of the University or the US Government.

Download PITF Global Forecasting Model Replication Script.do

Download PITF Global Model Replication Data 121709.dta

Download AJPS Table 1 and 3 input data- Set A2

Download AJPS Table 1 and 3 input data- Set B2

Download AJPS Table 1 and 3 input data- Set C2

Download Table 1 — Hits and misses tables_Global foresting model

Download Table 3 — Hits and misses tables_Fearon_Laitin model

Download Table 3 — Hits and misses tables_Global foresting model with the Same Data Set as Fearon and Laitin Model